FCK: Why is Labour Going Against Its Own Inquiry?

by Fiscally Conservative Kiwi on November 20, 2009

A reader has kindly reminded FCK of Parliament’s Inquiry into the future mon­e­tary pol­icy frame­work, reported just over a year ago, when Labour had a major­ity on the Finance and Expen­di­ture Select Com­mit­tee. The report, writ­ten at the direc­tion of for­mer Min­is­ter of Finance Dr Cullen, was intended to re-enforce Labour’s com­mit­ment to bipar­ti­san sup­port for price sta­bil­ity and infla­tion tar­get­ing. Goff’s speech yes­ter­day repu­di­ated that commitment.

The key find­ings of the com­mit­tee were (empha­sis by FCK):

  • con­firms the impor­tance of main­tain­ing price sta­bil­ity as a vital com­po­nent of a healthy and well per­form­ing economy.
  • agrees that mon­e­tary pol­icy remains the pri­mary means for main­tain­ing price sta­bil­ity.
  • acknowl­edges that the Pol­icy Tar­gets Agree­ment between the Min­is­ter of Finance and the Gov­er­nor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand recog­nises the impor­tant role price sta­bil­ity plays in sup­port­ing the achieve­ment of wider eco­nomic and social objec­tives, and that it requires the Reserve Bank, in pur­su­ing its price sta­bil­ity objec­tive, to oper­ate mon­e­tary pol­icy in a man­ner that avoids unnec­es­sary insta­bil­ity in out­put, inter­est rates, and the exchange rate.
  • acknowl­edges that New Zealand’s mon­e­tary pol­icy approach, empha­sis­ing cen­tral bank inde­pen­dence and infla­tion tar­get­ing, is stan­dard among, small, open, and devel­oped economies.
  • acknowl­edges that New Zealand’s mon­e­tary pol­icy oper­ates in a sim­i­lar man­ner to coun­tries with wider man­dates, such as Aus­tralia and the United States.
  • acknowl­edges that at times of strong infla­tion pres­sures, the costs of main­tain­ing price sta­bil­ity are often borne dis­pro­por­tion­ately by the export sector.
  • acknowl­edges that a range of eco­nomic fac­tors and resource con­straints have con­tributed to recent infla­tion pres­sures and to how quickly mon­e­tary pol­icy has affected infla­tion outcomes.
  • acknowl­edges that fac­tors other than mon­e­tary policy—such as sus­tained improve­ment in trend productivity—play a key role in less­en­ing the adjust­ments required to main­tain­ing low infla­tion over the medium term.
  • believes that con­straints on the avail­abil­ity of nat­ural resources, par­tic­u­larly crude oil, are likely to be increas­ingly sig­nif­i­cant con­trib­u­tors to inflation.
  • heard exten­sive evi­dence con­cern­ing sup­ple­men­tary sta­bil­i­sa­tion instru­ments, such as a mort­gage inter­est rate levy, an interest-linked sav­ings scheme, and other taxes that might com­ple­ment inter­est rates in man­ag­ing infla­tion, but did not find the argu­ments
    in their favour com­pelling enough to sup­port them being pur­sued fur­ther at this time.

What’s fas­ci­nat­ing is that Labour are now essen­tially repu­di­at­ing their own inquiry, or at least argu­ing that price sta­bil­ity has a much great affect on the export sec­tor and that it is incom­pat­i­ble with “wider eco­nomic and social objec­tives”. The ques­tion is, why? Charles Chau­vel should have enough of a back­ground in busi­ness (being a for­mer board mem­ber of Minter Elli­son Rudd Watts and Merid­ian Energy) to know that price sta­bil­ity is impor­tant to all sec­tors of the economy.

Update: The inquiry was not directly by Michael Cullen. Mea culpa.

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{ 4 comments… read them below or add one }

STC November 20, 2009 at 9:15 am

Why is Labour going against its own inquiry?”

Why did National drop oppo­si­tion to Inter­est Free Stu­dent Loans, Kiwibank and the Goldcard?

Well because they are under new man­age­ment and they want to win the next elec­tion. I think the real ques­tion is whether this is a strat­egy that will work.

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FCK November 23, 2009 at 7:56 am

Those are both fis­cal poli­cies, I’m talk­ing about mon­e­tary pol­icy here. That has a much great affect on New Zealand’s long-term wel­fare than free pub­lic trans­port for old folks or increas­ing the cost of uni­ver­sity edu­ca­tion to the taxpayer…

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Charles Chauvel November 20, 2009 at 8:58 pm

You need to read the report and Phil Goff’s speech last week more carefully.

The find­ings that you cite from the Inquiry into Mon­e­tary Pol­icy last year, that I chaired, weren’t pro­duced “at the direc­tion of” Michael Cullen. Nor are they incon­sis­tent with what Phil Goff has said.

Labour remains com­mit­ted to price sta­bil­ity. Social demo­c­ra­tic par­ties in the 1970s learned some hard and valu­able lessons when we saw the value of the sav­ings of the peo­ple we rep­re­sent eroded by run­away infla­tion, and we won’t be revert­ing to the pol­icy set­tings that allow that to happen.

A key find­ing of the inquiry, that you cite above, is “at times of strong infla­tion pres­sures, the costs of main­tain­ing price sta­bil­ity are often borne dis­pro­por­tion­ately by the export sec­tor”. An unin­tended con­se­quence of the way we oper­ate mon­e­tary pol­icy is the attrac­tive­ness of the kiwi to inter­na­tional cur­rency trad­ing. Its result­ing rapid and unpre­dictable move­ments mean that many exporters are sim­ply unable to com­pete, lead­ing to them shed jobs onshore.

My busi­ness back­ground shows me that it is not in our national inter­ests to bleed jobs from our pro­duc­tive sec­tor through the unin­tended con­se­quences of the oper­a­tion of mon­e­tary pol­icy on the exchange rate. Keep­ing the goal of price sta­bil­ity, but adding another one like pre­serv­ing full employ­ment (which is the sit­u­a­tion in Aus­tralia and the USA – hardly exem­plars of run­away infla­tion) would do no harm, and could do much good.

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FCK November 23, 2009 at 7:56 am

Mea culpa on Michael Cullen Charles.

I’ll respond to your sub­stan­tive points in another post.

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